Global Banks’ Macroeconomic Expectations and Credit Supply

Prispevek je nastal v soavtorstvu Stevena Ongene in Xianga Lija.

Povzetek

Xiang Li and Steven Ongena examine how global banks’ macroeconomic expectations shape credit supply. Exploiting granular within-firm variation in lender beliefs – by comparing multiple banks lending concurrently to the same firm – alongside an instrumental variable strategy, the authors document that optimistic GDP growth expectations causally drive credit expansion. Quantitatively, a one-standard-deviation increase in a lender’s GDP forecast expands its loan share by over 8 percentage points (0.75 standard deviations), generating $75 million in additional lending. Conversely, global banks’ inflation expectations only impact credit supply during recent high-inflation regimes. Finally, Li and Ongena show that elevated growth expectations induce a distinct reallocation of credit toward riskier borrowing firms.

O predavatelju

Steven Ongena je profesor bančništva na Oddelku za finance Univerze v Zürichu, višji nosilec katedre (Senior Chair) na Swiss Finance Institute, raziskovalni profesor na KU Leuven ter na NTNU Business School Norveške univerze za znanost in tehnologijo, hkrati pa tudi raziskovalni sodelavec (Research Fellow) za finančno ekonomiko pri CEPR. Raziskave profesorja Ongene so bile objavljene v vodilnih znanstvenih revijah s področja financ in ekonomije. Skupaj s Hansom Degrysejem in Moshejem Kimom je soavtor podiplomskega učbenika Microeconometrics of Banking: Methods, Applications and Results, ki ga je izdala založba Oxford University Press. Za svoje delo je prejel številna akademska priznanja ter deluje kot raziskovalni svetovalec več centralnim bankam.

Kako se prijaviti

Za prijavo na seminar pošljite e-pošto na naslov seminar@bsi.si. Prijavite se lahko do četrtka, 23. septembra 2026. Seminar bo potekal v angleškem jeziku.